The CFP and why UCF, et al, will never get a bid

I realized that I haven't written a post here in over 8 years, primarily because most of what I post is short enough to go on Twitter.  But this post is too long to be split up, and I'd like to start writing more regularly again.

So here is my latest tirade, this one regarding why UCF would deserve a CFP bid if they win out, and why they'll never get it.

If UCF's schedule automatically equates to the team being so overrated, then Bama fans should be SCREAMING to play them in the CFP semis. Easy win, rest the starters for three quarters so they're fresh for the title game, right? But they know what we all know - on any given day, good teams can find a way to win against better teams. Ask OSU how that easy win vs Purdue turned out. Or how Texas' easy win vs Maryland turned out. Explain how UCF can smoke Pitt by 31 and not play their starters in the 4th quarter and have that called a win vs a bad team, but ND only beats Pitt at home by 5 two weekends later and that's a quality win. Did Pitt suddenly improve? Yeah, that's what I thought.

Very few people are arguing Bama is clearly the best team this year. But beyond that, it's a toss up. If you really examine the middle and bottom of the big 5 conferences, LSU playing Arkansas is just as "bad" of a game as UCF playing SMU. Oklahoma playing Baylor is just as "bad" of a game as UCF playing ECU. Assuming UCF remains unbeaten (and that is by no means a given), playing USF on the road the last week of the season will be just as tough as Georgia playing Florida this weekend. Now after you stop laughing, answer this: Does it have the same storied history? Of course not. But aren't rivalry games often tough even when one team is great and another is having an off year? Yes. That happens every year. Well, USF just happens to be UCF's biggest rival, and rivalry games are often close and often result in upsets by a team that's "not as good on paper." Winning those types of games have to count favorably for any team, regardless of the conference.

We've also repeatedly hear that teams like UCF, USF, Memphis, Houston, etc. should "schedule better games."  Trust me, all of those schools have tried to schedule better opponents, but often an opponent you expect to be powerful when you scheduled them five or more years ago (i.e Pitt this season) turns out to be having a bad year.  So the G5 team gets hammered for scheduling a "bad" P5 team.  "Play Bama," they say.  But Bama would much rather play Mercer than any team from the AAC or MWC because the potential for one of those teams to be good in a given year is greater than that from a team from the Southern, which means that the potential for an upset or a game too close for comfort exists.

The next argument is "join a P5 conference."  Well, that's been tried too. The Big 12 flirted with expansion recently so they could hold a conference championship game only to have ESPN threaten the conference with less money per team.  Well, the NCAA felt so bad for the woefully mistreated Big 12 that they allowed them to hold a title game with only 10 teams.  Never mind, the Big 12 told those schools they were courting, while laughing all the way to the bank.

Of course the biggest obstacle to P5 expansion is that the lesser schools in the P5 conferences want no part of a UCF and it's 60,000+ student base in a wonderful climate, or a rising Houston program that would over time dilute the recruiting for UT, TAMU, LSU and others.  Look at it this way, if the P5 conferences were somehow forced to disband and reselect schools for the 2019 football season (other sports discounted), and they were looking at the long-term success potential of their members, do you really think the SEC would choose BOTH Ole Miss and Mississippi State or BOTH Arkansas and Vanderbilt over either UCF or USF?  Do you really think the Big 12 would choose BOTH Kansas and Kansas State or BOTH Baylor and Texas Tech over either Memphis, Cincinnati or Houston?  No. Way.  Why?  Because given the $30-$50 MILLION annual dollars programs get from a P5 conference affiliation, schools like UCF would become much more attractive to recruits once facilities are closer to being equal.  Perfect example - UCF's stadium seats 43,000.  If they were asked to join the ACC or SEC tomorrow, do you think they couldn't work a deal with the 65,000-seat Citrus Bowl to host games against Clemson or Alabama while their stadium is being enlarged and upgraded?  Or that Houston, given an opportunity to join the SEC or Big 12 couldn't work a deal with the 72,000-seat NRG Stadium to host LSU or Texas while they do the same with their stadium?

Ask yourself which is the better road trip as a fan in late November: Lexington, Kentucky, or Orlando, Florida?   Ames, Iowa, or Memphis, Tennessee?  So it's really the traditional football doormats in the P5 conferences that have the most to lose; not Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State or others that most would consider football's elite.

We've heard from the "Elites" since last year's four CFP teams were announced that, "Bama only got in because of their history and not their play this season." But when UCF (or Boise, etc.) try to say "judge us on THIS season and not our history," all they hear from the Elites is, "Your history is not good enough to be under consideration."  Double standard much, do ya?

The ONLY way to settle this is on the field. Nobody is arguing that a G5 school should get a title shot every year. But in years like 2017 and this year, until they are beaten, an unbeaten UCF deserves a shot at the title. But that will never happen because the fact remains that the CFP is an invitational tournament created by 5 conferences, 6 bowls with ties to those 5 conferences and ESPN. And I'd be willing to bet a large sum of money that if the "independent committee" that decides those four participants some how decided that UCF should get a bid, those conference commissioners, those bowl commissioners and ESPN would find a way to never even let a hint of that decision leak.

Don't forget that ESPN owns at least part of not only the Longhorns network but the SEC network as well. ESPN doesn't want ANYONE from the AAC in their tournament because they know it will cost them TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS when the AAC TV contract is up for renewal if a team like UCF were to break that glass ceiling. The CFP is rigged. You know it, I know it, and everyone else knows it.  Let's prove it - one way or the other - by giving a team like UCF a shot.